Miami Ranks Third Among U.S. Real Estate Markets as Griffin Deals, Tyko Loans Drive Activity

Office vacancy fell to 13.7 percent in the third quarter, the lowest level since late 2020, while Tyko Capital has provided more than $2 billion in construction financing within a year.

By the Family Office Real Estate Daily Desk·Wednesday, November 4, 2026·2 min read

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Why is Miami ranked among the top U.S. real estate markets for 2027 and what deals are driving activity there?

Miami ranked third among U.S. real estate markets to watch in 2027 for the second consecutive year, according to the Urban Land Institute and PwC's Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2027 report. Ken Griffin's acquisitions and Tyko Capital's more than $2 billion in construction financing within a year are cited as key drivers, alongside office vacancy falling to 13.7 percent in the third quarter, its lowest level since late 2020.

Key facts

Dallas-Fort Worth ranked first and Nashville ranked second among U.S. real estate markets to watch in 2027, according to the Urban Land Institute and PwC's Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2027 report.
Tyko Capital, a joint venture involving Adi Chugh and Paul Singer's Elliott Investment Management, provided over $2 billion in construction financing for South Florida projects within a year.
Tyko Capital's most recent $817 million construction loan to Fortune International Group and KAR Properties set a Florida state record, according to the article.
Miami office vacancy fell to 13.7 percent in the third quarter, its lowest level since late 2020, according to the Urban Land Institute and PwC's Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2027 report.
South Florida had $6.9 billion in investment sales through August 2026, down 4.3 percent from the same period in 2025, compared with a peak of $17.3 billion in 2022.
Miami retail vacancy stood at 3.1 percent, the second-lowest rate in the country, with rents up 37 percent since 2019 compared with a 25 percent increase nationally, according to the emerging trends report.

Miami Ranks Third Among U.S. Real Estate Markets as Griffin Deals, Tyko Loans Drive Activity — Image: editorial illustration · Story sourced from finance.yahoo.com

Miami ranked third among U.S. real estate markets to watch in 2027, holding the position for the second consecutive year, according to the Urban Land Institute and PwC's Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2027 report. Dallas-Fort Worth took the top spot, followed by Nashville. The annual report drew on insights from nearly 1,500 real estate investors, developers, lenders and advisers across the U.S. and Canada.

The report attributed Miami's commercial real estate appeal largely to growth in its finance and technology sectors. Ken Griffin's Citadel launched construction in March on a planned 1.7 million-square-foot Brickell headquarters, a $2.5 billion project where vertical construction recently began. Griffin paid $1.1 billion for Mana Wynwood and nearby properties to build a 35-acre Carnegie Mellon University campus. Griffin also partnered with Goldman Properties to buy the 545wyn office building in Wynwood from Chicago-based developer Sterling Bay for $181 million.

Office demand remained strong, with companies taking up 2.8 million square feet and averaging just over 27,000 square feet, according to Cushman & Wakefield data cited in the report. Vacancy fell to 13.7 percent in the third quarter, the lowest level since late 2020, while new construction remained limited outside major corporate projects. Most major office buildings under development in South Florida are in Miami and West Palm Beach.

Miami office rents approached an average of $68 per square foot, 10 percent below Manhattan's average. Class A space fetched between $100 and $120 per square foot, while office buildings traded for about $400 to $600 per square foot depending on the submarket. In June, Peter Thiel's family office secured a record lease at Miami's 830 Brickell tower, paying $250 per square foot for nearly 18,200 square feet of space.

Tyko Capital, a joint venture involving Adi Chugh and Paul Singer's Elliott Investment Management, provided more than $2 billion in construction financing for South Florida projects within a year. The firm's most recent $817 million loan to Edgardo Defortuna's Fortune International Group and Shahab Karmely's KAR Properties set a state record. The previous record was held by Property Markets Group's $668 million financing package for the Waldorf Astoria Hotel & Residences Miami from Bank OZK and Related Fund Management.

South Florida multifamily deals bounced back from their 2023 low and were on pace to reach $3.1 billion this year. Apartment demand ranked 12th nationally relative to existing stock, while vacancy fell to 8.1 percent and rents rose 2.8 percent year over year in the third quarter, according to the report. Miami retail vacancy stood at 3.1 percent, the second-lowest rate in the country. Rents spiked 37 percent since 2019, compared with a 25 percent increase nationally.

Investment sales activity cooled despite rising rents across most asset classes. South Florida recorded $6.9 billion in investment sales through August, down 4.3 percent from the same period in 2025. The last peak was in 2022 at $17.3 billion. In December, Oak Row Equities and Vlad Doronin's OKO Group paid a record $520 million for Aimco's waterfront Brickell assemblage, with Mariposa Real Estate as a partner. Tyko Capital provided a $464.5 million senior loan for the purchase and predevelopment.

The Deployment Angle

Family Office Real Estate Daily Desk · our analysis, not the source's

The construction-loan route favors family offices with sponsor relationships willing to co-lend on large ground-up projects. Tyko's $2 billion in commitments within a year demonstrates that construction debt remains available for well-capitalized developers even as acquisition volume retreated 4.3 percent. The $817 million Faena loan and the $464.5 million Brickell predevelopment facility set state records, suggesting spreads on senior construction debt may be attractive relative to equity returns on stabilized assets trading at $400 to $600 per square foot.

Direct office ownership at current pricing requires underwriting rent growth beyond the $68-per-square-foot market average to justify acquisition. Class A space at $100 to $120 per square foot and 13.7 percent vacancy indicates limited downside protection if corporate demand softens. The $250-per-square-foot Thiel lease at 830 Brickell is an outlier, not a comp to extrapolate across the market. Principals should pressure-test any office pro forma that assumes sustained migration from Manhattan, given that Miami rents remain 10 percent below New York despite two years of inbound corporate moves.

Multifamily plays favor programmatic joint ventures with operating partners who can execute at scale. The $3.1 billion transaction pace and 2.8 percent year-over-year rent growth in the third quarter signal steady but unspectacular returns. Vacancy at 8.1 percent leaves little margin for lease-up delays or construction cost overruns. Retail at 3.1 percent vacancy and 37 percent rent growth since 2019 offers scarcity value, but the asset class requires local operating expertise and tolerance for tourism-dependent cash flows.

Avoid chasing headline deals like the $520 million Brickell assemblage without clarity on the development timeline and entitlement risk. Oak Row and OKO's purchase with a $464.5 million senior loan implies a loan-to-cost above 89 percent if total project cost approaches the purchase price, leaving thin equity cushion for cost overruns. Family offices should reserve direct equity for assets with cash flow from day one or co-GP arrangements where the sponsor absorbs construction-completion risk.

Questions this story answers

01Why did Miami rank third among U.S. real estate markets for 2027?

The Urban Land Institute and PwC's Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2027 report cited corporate relocations, international capital, Ken Griffin's acquisitions, and billions of dollars in construction lending from Tyko Capital as key drivers. The report also noted Miami's growing finance and tech sectors as central to its commercial real estate appeal.

02What major office deals has Ken Griffin done in Miami?

Ken Griffin's Citadel launched construction in March on a planned 1.7 million-square-foot Brickell headquarters valued at $2.5 billion. Griffin also paid $1.1 billion for Mana Wynwood and nearby properties to build a 35-acre Carnegie Mellon University campus, and teamed with Goldman Properties to buy the 545wyn office building in Wynwood for $181 million.

03What are current Miami office rents and vacancy rates?

Miami office vacancy fell to 13.7 percent in the third quarter, its lowest level since late 2020. Average office rents are nearing $68 per square foot, 10 percent below Manhattan's average. Class A space is fetching between $100 and $120 per square foot, while office buildings are trading for approximately $400 to $600 per square foot depending on the submarket.

04How has Miami multifamily performed recently?

South Florida multifamily deals have bounced back from a 2023 low and are on pace to reach $3.1 billion in 2026. Apartment demand ranks 12th nationally relative to existing stock, vacancy has fallen to 8.1 percent, and rents rose 2.8 percent year over year in the third quarter, according to the Urban Land Institute and PwC's Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2027 report.

05What is the largest construction loan ever made in Florida for real estate?

Tyko Capital provided an $817 million construction loan to Edgardo Defortuna's Fortune International Group and Shahab Karmely's KAR Properties, setting a Florida state record. The previous record was held by a $668 million financing package for the Waldorf Astoria Hotel & Residences Miami from Bank OZK and Related Fund Management, arranged for Property Markets Group.

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