Deloitte has released three forecast scenarios for US economic growth through 2031, with oil price trajectories and artificial intelligence investment identified as the dominant variables shaping outcomes over the next five years. The analysis, published by the firm's Global Economics Research Center, emphasizes the fluid nature of current conditions and frames the scenarios as explicit assumption-driven guides rather than precise predictions.
The baseline forecast projects real GDP growth of 2.0% in 2026, moderating to 1.8% in 2027 as consumer spending normalizes and AI-related investment growth tempers. Deloitte revised its 2026 fixed business investment growth projection to 6.1%, up from the 4% forecast issued in March. Global economist Michael Wolf and deputy manager Rohini Sanyal attribute the upward revision to capital expenditures tied to artificial intelligence and wealth effects from higher stock prices.
Despite the United States being the world's largest oil producer, Deloitte's analysis concludes that higher oil prices are expected to weigh on growth by eroding purchasing power, with only limited upside for additional investment in oil and gas production. The baseline scenario assumes Brent crude will average $92 per barrel in 2026 and fall to $80 per barrel in 2027. Higher oil prices have already influenced inflation, which reached 4.2% on a year-over-year basis in May, up from 2.4% in February.
Fertilizer prices impacted by the Middle East conflict are expected to raise food prices later this year, according to the forecast. Tariffs have also contributed to inflationary pressure, though Deloitte expects those pressures to diminish by year-end. Stronger inflation coupled with solid payroll growth will likely cause the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by the end of this year, the analysis states. However, the rates are unlikely to stay heightened for long, with the Fed expected to announce a rate cut before the end of 2027.
Fiscal policy dynamics are shifting as the boost from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act begins to fade. The legislation supported growth this year, but fiscal policy is expected to turn modestly contractionary as the stimulus from tax cuts diminishes while federal spending remains constrained. Higher gasoline prices have severely blunted the stimulative effect of those tax cuts, according to the report.
Consumer spending is anticipated to shift lower amid higher interest rates and inflation. Personal savings fell to an extreme low of 2.6% of after-tax income in April. Wage growth has continued to moderate even as inflation has picked up, further eroding purchasing power. Wage growth is not expected to pick up, given demand for labor remains muted, the forecast notes.
A decrease in immigration is expected to weigh on slow total employment growth, with working-age population growth nearing 0% and slowing to a crawl. Deloitte has revised its longer-term real GDP forecast higher as the firm now anticipates stronger AI-led productivity gains to begin showing up in macroeconomic data over the next few years. As a result, real GDP in 2030 is expected to be 2.1%, up from the 1.7% forecasted in March.
The analysis includes a downside scenario maintaining the same tariff and immigration assumptions as the baseline but assuming a higher average oil price throughout the forecast period. The downside case assumes Brent crude averages $106 per barrel in 2026, slipping to $103 per barrel thereafter. This scenario would further constrain growth through persistent purchasing power erosion and elevated inflation pressures.