Data Centers Pull Largest US Property Flows as Research Houses Split on Multifamily

US commercial real estate investment is tracking toward $605 billion for 2026, with industrial vacancy falling to 6.9% as the sector passes its weakest point.

By the Family Office Real Estate Daily Desk·Monday, September 14, 2026·2 min read

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Where is US commercial real estate capital flowing in 2026 and which sectors do the major research houses agree or disagree on?

US commercial real estate investment is tracking toward roughly $605 billion for 2026, a 16% increase over the prior year, according to CBRE's mid-year outlook. Industrial and data centers are pulling the largest capital flows, with Cushman & Wakefield reporting national industrial vacancy falling to 6.9%. Multifamily is the one sector on which major research firms openly disagree, ranging from cautious to constructive.

Key facts

US commercial real estate investment is on track to reach roughly $605 billion in 2026, an increase of about 16% over the prior year, according to CBRE's mid-year outlook.
GI Partners paid around $750 million for a 189,000-square-foot data center in Elk Grove Village, Illinois, a building that was an ordinary warehouse less than two years ago, according to The Real Deal.
Cushman & Wakefield reports national industrial vacancy has fallen to 6.9%, a sign the sector has passed its weakest point as demand outpaces new supply.
CBRE reports office rents rose 2.2% over the year, the strongest since early 2020, with prime buildings closer to 5%.

Data Centers Pull Largest US Property Flows as Research Houses Split on Multifamily — Image: editorial illustration · Story sourced from Raveum

GI Partners paid around $750 million for a 189,000-square-foot data center in Elk Grove Village, Illinois, a building that was an ordinary warehouse less than two years ago, The Real Deal reported. The transaction captures the single biggest theme running through the US commercial real estate market, according to a September review by Raveum, a cross-border investment advisory.

US commercial real estate investment is tracking toward roughly $605 billion for 2026, with industrial and data centers pulling the largest flows, Raveum reported. The major research houses broadly agree that returns in this cycle come from rental income, not rising prices, and that AI infrastructure is the biggest demand story in the US market.

CBRE frames 2026 as income-driven, where the money is made from rent collected rather than from selling a building for more than you paid, Raveum said. Blackstone makes the same point from a different angle: US property values fell around 22% from their peak in 2022 before stabilizing, reframing today's pricing as an entry point rather than a growth story, the firm said. Nareit, the US REIT industry association, reports listed real estate outperforming on steady operations rather than rising valuations.

CBRE upgraded its 2026 industrial leasing forecast to more than 1 billion square feet, which it says would be a record year, Raveum reported. Cushman & Wakefield reports national industrial vacancy has fallen to 6.9%, a sign the sector has passed its weakest point as demand outpaces new supply. JLL notes take-up rising in most major markets.

CBRE credits the AI investment boom as a central reason US economic growth has held up, tracking around 2.1% for the year. ULI and PwC name data centers a top sector to watch. Cushman & Wakefield is running a content series on data centers and the power they require. J.P. Morgan Asset Management ties industrial and power demand directly to AI-driven decisions about where to build.

Operator selection inside data center and industrial strategies matters more than the asset class itself in the back half of this cycle, family office advisor Jaf Glazer has maintained.

Office is recovering, but only at the top end. CBRE reports office rents up 2.2% over the year, the strongest since early 2020, with prime buildings closer to 5%. Cushman & Wakefield records seven straight quarters of improving demand, with the sharpest vacancy declines in gateway markets like San Francisco and Midtown Manhattan. All sources stress a two-tier recovery: prime space is tightening while older, secondary buildings still struggle.

Multifamily is the one sector the major research firms openly disagree on, some cautious, some constructive. CBRE reports performance diverging sharply by market, with national rents up just 0.2% while San Francisco saw nearly 10%. Cushman & Wakefield's multifamily team is more constructive, pointing to strengthening occupancy and demand. Some Nareit panelists are openly cautious, calling 2026 a challenging year for the sector despite deeply discounted valuations. Interest rates remain the swing factor. CBRE had expected the 10-year Treasury yield to fall below 4% by year-end, and now expects it to stay above 4% after a mid-year geopolitical shock. The US Federal Reserve makes its next interest rate decision on September 16, and the outcome is genuinely undecided, Raveum said.

The Deployment Angle

Family Office Real Estate Daily Desk · our analysis, not the source's

The warehouse-to-data-center repricing argues for co-GP capital alongside an operator who can convert industrial shells into powered infrastructure, rather than an LP commitment to a diversified fund. The 22% US property value decline from 2022 to stabilization gives a principal the arithmetic to underwrite basis. If a sponsor bought at the trough and is now raising platform capital, the equity cheque is entering after the markdown but before the income ramp materializes in full.

Industrial at 6.9% vacancy and more than 1 billion square feet of leasing this year is past its weakest point, which means a direct ownership play via a separate account or programmatic joint venture now competes with the co-GP route on risk-adjusted terms. Underwrite to 7% unlevered income, not price growth. If a sponsor is pitching industrial on the basis of AI-driven take-up, ask what share of the portfolio is within five miles of a power substation and what the lease term is with any hyperscale tenant.

Multifamily's divergence by market argues against a national diversified strategy and for a single-market separate account in San Francisco or another gateway where rents are up materially. The sector's income is up 0.2% nationally but nearly 10% in one city, which is operator selection wearing the clothes of an asset class call. If a sponsor is pitching multifamily on discounted valuations, price in that some Nareit panelists are openly cautious despite the discount.

Office at the top end is tightening, but the two-tier recovery means a direct play must be in a prime building in a gateway market or it is a different bet entirely. Avoid any pitch that treats office as a single asset class. The US Federal Reserve's next rate decision on September 16 is undecided, and CBRE now expects the 10-year Treasury yield to stay above 4% through year-end rather than falling below it. That means any refinancing assumption inside a sponsor's model should be pressure-tested at current rates, not at the lower rates the market was pricing in earlier this year.

Questions this story answers

01Where is capital flowing in US commercial real estate right now?

According to CBRE's mid-year outlook, US commercial real estate investment is tracking toward roughly $605 billion for 2026. Industrial and logistics is drawing the most consistent demand, with data centers pulling some of the largest individual transactions. Office investment is recovering but flowing narrowly toward prime buildings in gateway cities. Multifamily demand varies widely by market.

02What is the outlook for US industrial real estate in 2026?

Cushman & Wakefield reports national industrial vacancy has fallen to 6.9%, indicating the sector has passed its weakest point as demand outpaces new supply. First-half industrial absorption reached 113.6 million square feet, the strongest first half since 2023, according to Cushman & Wakefield, with demand concentrated in facilities built since 2020 and those larger than 500,000 square feet.

03Why are the research houses split on multifamily?

CBRE reports national multifamily rents rose just 0.2%, while San Francisco saw nearly 10%, reflecting sharp divergence by market. Cushman & Wakefield's multifamily team is more constructive, pointing to strengthening occupancy and demand. Some Nareit panelists are openly cautious, calling 2026 a challenging year for the sector despite deeply discounted valuations.

04What was the biggest single US commercial real estate deal recently?

GI Partners, a San Francisco investment firm, paid around $750 million for a 189,000-square-foot data center in Elk Grove Village, Illinois, according to The Real Deal. The seller, a subsidiary of Australian firm HMC Capital, had bought the property for around $712 million after it was converted from warehouse use. The Real Deal describes it as potentially the most expensive US commercial real estate deal of the year.

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