What share of financial advisors expect the stock market to fall over the next six months?

According to Wealth Management's WMIQ Advisor Sentiment Index, 39% of respondents expect a market decline over the next six months, while 34% expect an improvement and 26% expect stability. Looking out 12 months, 37% expect a decline and 41% expect an improvement.

Investment Strategies

Advisor Sentiment on Markets Falls to Five-Month Low as Outlook Divides

The Wealth Management WMIQ Advisor Sentiment Index dropped three points in September to 115, with 39% of respondents expecting market declines over the next six months.

By the Family Office Real Estate Daily Desk·Monday, October 12, 2026·1 min read

Editorial summary of reporting byWealthManagement.com Our editorial standards →

The answer · checked against WealthManagement.com

What is the current WMIQ Advisor Sentiment Index reading and how are financial advisors split on the market outlook?

Wealth Management's WMIQ Advisor Sentiment Index fell three points in September to 115, its lowest reading in five months and 12% below the all-time high reached in May. While most financial advisors remain optimistic, 39% of survey respondents expect market declines over the next six months, and the share holding a negative near-term outlook is at its highest point in five months.

Key facts

Wealth Management's WMIQ Advisor Sentiment Index dropped three points in September to a reading of 115, according to Wealth Management's WMIQ Advisor Sentiment Index.
The September reading of 115 is 12% lower than the index's all-time high reached in May, according to Wealth Management's WMIQ Advisor Sentiment Index.
Among survey respondents, 39% expect a market decline over the next six months, 34% expect an improvement, and 26% expect stability, according to Wealth Management's WMIQ Advisor Sentiment Index.
The percentage of advisors with a negative near-term market outlook is at its highest point in five months, according to Wealth Management's WMIQ Advisor Sentiment Index.
Advisor sentiment on the economy ticked up four points in September to an index reading of 106, according to Wealth Management's WMIQ Advisor Sentiment Index.
Methodology, data collection and analysis for the WMIQ Advisor Sentiment Index was conducted by Wealth Management and Informa Engage, with data collected September 1–30, 2026.

Advisor Sentiment on Markets Falls to Five-Month Low as Outlook Divides — Image: editorial illustration · Story sourced from WealthManagement.com

Financial advisors' confidence in continued stock market gains dropped three points in September to an index reading of 115, according to Wealth Management's WMIQ Advisor Sentiment Index. The reading remains in positive territory—100 represents a neutral view—but sits 12% below the all-time high reached in May.

Advisors are sharply divided on the six-month outlook. Thirty-four percent expect market improvement, 26% expect stability, and 39% expect a decline, the survey found. The pattern holds over a twelve-month horizon, with 41% expecting gains and 37% expecting declines. Only 10% of respondents currently hold a negative view of market performance.

The percentage of advisors with a negative near-term outlook is at its highest point in five months, the survey showed. Most advisors still view the stock market as fundamentally healthy, citing strong market data, corporate profitability, and continued price gains. Several respondents said equities are overvalued or trading at historically high multiples, leaving the market vulnerable to disappointing economic news or earnings results.

Advisor sentiment on the economy ticked up four points in September to an index reading of 106. Forty-one percent of respondents consider the current state of the economy positive, and an additional 42% consider it average. Respondents are evenly divided on the six-month economic outlook, with 33% expecting improvement, 34% expecting no change, and 33% expecting a decline.

The widest sentiment dispersion in five months is a signal to re-underwrite every assumption tied to forward returns rather than trailing performance, family office advisor Jaf Glazer has cautioned.

Looking forward twelve months, advisors remain divided but slightly more optimistic, with 43% expecting economic improvement and 36% expecting a decline. A substantial share of advisors' comments tied the economic and market outlook to elections, congressional control, federal policy, government spending, and national debt, the survey found.

While respondents differ sharply in their political perspectives, most advisors remain optimistic even as a significant number report that uncertainty about government policy and fiscal direction is influencing their confidence in the future trajectory of the economy and markets, according to the survey. The data was collected from September 1 to September 30, 2026.

The Deployment Angle

Family Office Real Estate Daily Desk · our analysis, not the source's

The dispersion in advisor sentiment—39% forecasting six-month market declines against 34% expecting gains—argues for revisiting portfolio construction at the position level rather than the allocation level. Family offices holding concentrated public equity exposures should stress-test liquidity terms on any levered vehicles and re-underwrite distribution assumptions on co-investments where the GP relied on exit multiples derived from May sentiment rather than September reality.

The reading of 115, still positive but 12% off the May peak, suggests the market has repriced sentiment faster than fundamentals. That gap creates deployment opportunity in assets where pricing moved ahead of sentiment—specifically, stabilised multifamily and industrial properties where cap rates compressed through May on expected rent growth that has since moderated. Direct ownership or separate-account structures allow family offices to lock in current yields without absorbing the markup embedded in fund vehicles priced at May sentiment levels.

The economic sentiment reading of 106—barely positive—combined with the higher market reading of 115 implies advisors see equity valuations running ahead of underlying economic confidence. Family offices deploying capital into real estate should weight near-term cash flow over residual value and avoid structures where the majority of the return depends on an exit multiple that assumes 2025-2026 sentiment holds through 2027-2028. Co-GP structures that allow influence over hold-period decisions offer more control than passive LP commitments in that environment.

Questions this story answers

01What is the current reading of the WMIQ Advisor Sentiment Index and what does it mean?

Wealth Management's WMIQ Advisor Sentiment Index stood at 115 in September, down three points from the prior month. In the index, 100 represents a completely neutral view, so a reading of 115 remains in positive territory. However, the September reading is 12% below the index's all-time high reached in May.

03How are financial advisors viewing the economy right now?

Advisor sentiment on the economy rose four points in September to an index reading of 106, according to Wealth Management's WMIQ Advisor Sentiment Index. Four in ten respondents, or 41%, consider the current state of the economy to be positive, and an additional 42% consider it average.

04What factors are financial advisors citing as risks to the market and economic outlook?

According to the WMIQ Advisor Sentiment Index survey responses, a substantial share of advisors tie the economic and market outlook to elections, congressional control, federal policy, government spending, and national debt. Several advisors also said equities are overvalued or trading at historically high multiples, leaving the market vulnerable to disappointing economic news or earnings results.

05Who conducted the WMIQ Advisor Sentiment Index survey and when was the data collected?

Methodology, data collection, and analysis were conducted by Wealth Management and Informa Engage, according to the index's methodology statement. Data was collected September 1–30, 2026. Respondents' views on the economy and stock markets are weighted and used to create an index tied to a neutral value of 100.

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